After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations and political maneuvering, the Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) has finalized its seat-sharing formula for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The meeting, held in Patna, marks a crucial turning point in Bihar’s political landscape. Sources suggest that the newly decided formula is not only a reflection of the current power equations but also a lesson learned from the 2020 elections, where the alliance faced a significant setback. This time, the guiding principle for the seat allocation is simple: the focus is on performance and winnability rather than seniority or historical sentiment.
RJD’s Dominance and Seat Adjustments
As expected, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) continues to be the dominant partner in the alliance. However, in a surprising move, the party has agreed to reduce its share of seats significantly. From contesting 144 seats in the 2020 elections, RJD will now contest around 130 seats. This reduction is part of Tejashwi Yadav’s broader strategy to project the RJD as an inclusive force, willing to accommodate allies for the larger purpose of uniting against the BJP.
In comparison, the Congress, which performed poorly in the 2020 elections, will see its seat share slashed from 70 to about 55 seats. This decision comes as a direct consequence of Congress’s disappointing performance in 2020, where it won only 19 seats out of the 70 it contested.
On the other hand, the Left parties, particularly the CPI(ML), have emerged as the biggest gainers in this round of seat-sharing. The CPI(ML), which won 12 of the 19 seats it contested in 2020, is expected to contest more than 25 seats in 2025. The CPI and CPM will retain around six and four seats, respectively.
Entry of New Allies: VIP, JMM, and RLJP Gain Bigger Roles
The political equation in Bihar is shifting with the entry of new allies. Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), a new entrant to the Grand Alliance, is expected to be allocated around 15 seats. The Janata Dal (United) ally Hemant Soren’s JMM and Pashupati Paras’s RLJP, which were not part of the alliance in 2020, will also gain an important role, with five additional seats coming from the RJD’s quota.
Tejashwi Yadav is expected to hold one-on-one meetings with alliance partners to finalize the specifics of the seat-sharing agreement, but sources confirm that the broad structure of the formula is already in place.
Key Factors Behind the Seat-Sharing Formula
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The 2020 Election Results as a Benchmark
One of the main factors influencing the seat-sharing formula is the performance in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections. Congress’s poor strike rate, winning only 19 out of the 70 seats it contested, has led to a considerable reduction in its share of the seats for 2025. In contrast, CPI(ML) had an impressive 63% success rate, winning 12 out of 19 seats, which has helped it secure a larger share this time.
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Focus on ‘Winnable’ Seats
This time, the Grand Alliance has focused on only contesting winnable seats. Each seat was carefully analyzed based on various factors, such as caste dynamics, past performance, and the strength of potential candidates. Congress, in particular, had previously alleged that RJD had allocated weak constituencies to it in 2020, leading to a less than satisfactory performance. Both parties have agreed that such mistakes will not be repeated.
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Lessons from the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were also a critical point of reference during the seat-sharing discussions. MLAs whose constituencies recorded low votes in favor of the Grand Alliance candidates are likely to lose their tickets. Around 15 to 20 RJD MLAs who underperformed in the Lok Sabha elections are expected to be replaced.
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Accommodating New Allies
In 2025, the Grand Alliance has expanded its coalition from five parties to seven. New allies, such as the JMM and RLJP, have been given significant roles, which has led to RJD and Congress sacrificing some of their seats. Despite these adjustments, the shared goal within the alliance remains clear: defeating the BJP and securing a united front.
Congress’s Dilemma and Internal Struggles
While the Grand Alliance has made significant strides in finalizing its seat-sharing formula, Congress has expressed some dissatisfaction over the reduction in its seat share. Insiders within Congress admit that the cut from 70 to 55 seats was “painful but necessary” given their poor performance in 2020. Rahul Gandhi has taken steps to overhaul the party’s Bihar unit, appointing Rajesh Ram as the state president and Krishna Allavaru as in-charge to reduce Lalu Prasad Yadav’s influence over the state unit.
A source close to Congress shared details about the party’s internal survey. In the 2020 elections, Congress won 19 seats, lost 12 seats by less than 10,000 votes, and 13 seats by a margin of 10,000 to 20,000 votes. Based on this analysis, Congress’s realistic seat share for 2025 was estimated to be between 44 and 60 seats. The party emphasized that ticket allocation would now be based purely on “popularity, social alignment, and performance,” rather than historical ties.
RJD’s Shift in Approach to Muslim-Yadav Equation
Tejashwi Yadav and the RJD have also made some significant shifts in their political strategy. After distancing themselves from the Shahabuddin family during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, RJD is now working on rebuilding its ties with them. Tejashwi Yadav’s slogan, “Shahabuddin Amar Rahe” (Long Live Shahabuddin), signals this shift in their approach. Sources suggest that Osama Shahab, the son of the late leader Mohammad Shahabuddin, may be fielded from Siwan.
Moreover, RJD is expected to drop around 15 to 20 MLAs who failed to deliver during the Lok Sabha elections. These changes indicate a broader shift in RJD’s strategy to appeal to its traditional Muslim-Yadav base.
Left Parties’ Expansion in Bihar’s South
The Left parties, particularly the CPI(ML), are looking to expand their reach in Bihar, especially after their strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Traditionally strong in regions like Bhojpur, Siwan, and Arwal, the CPI(ML) is now targeting constituencies in South Bihar, including Kaimur, Gaya, Aurangabad, Nalanda, and Jamui. Additionally, they are pushing for seats in Darbhanga, Madhubani, Supaul, and Purnia.
The visible camaraderie between CPI(ML) General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya, Tejashwi Yadav, and Rahul Gandhi during the Voter Rights Yatra further solidifies the Left’s position within the Grand Alliance.
Caste Arithmetic and the EBC Factor
The Grand Alliance’s strategy for the 2025 campaign is heavily focused on securing the support of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), who make up around 36% of Bihar’s population. EBCs have traditionally supported Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, but the alliance is now working to gain their support. Rahul Gandhi’s participation in the “Extremely Backward Justice Resolution” and his public apology to the OBC community are key steps to winning over this critical voter base.
While the Grand Alliance has already established strong support among Yadav and Muslim voters, their challenge now lies in gaining traction among upper-caste and Dalit voters, areas where the NDA continues to have strong support through leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi.
Legal Challenges and Potential Risks for the Alliance
Inside Congress, there is growing concern over the ongoing “Land for Jobs” case involving Lalu Prasad, Rabri Devi, and Tejashwi Yadav. Congress leaders fear that any unfavorable judgment in this case could disrupt the alliance’s campaign midway through the election process. Some insiders have called for a “Plan B” in case the RJD leadership faces legal issues during the elections. Congress has reportedly asked for more winnable seats to strengthen its position in such a scenario.
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Intervention to Seal the Deal
The seat-sharing talks between RJD and Congress reportedly hit an impasse over six contentious seats. It was only after Lalu Prasad Yadav personally intervened, following a phone call from Rahul Gandhi, that the issue was resolved. Lalu’s suggestion led RJD to concede the disputed seats to Congress, clearing the final hurdle in the negotiations.
As Bihar heads toward the 2025 Assembly elections, the Grand Alliance’s seat-sharing formula is a mix of pragmatism, power-sharing, and political foresight. By drawing lessons from the 2020 elections, analyzing the performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and accommodating new partners, the alliance hopes to present a united front against the BJP. However, whether this unity can withstand internal contradictions and the BJP’s aggressive campaign will only become clear when the first votes are cast. The real test for the Grand Alliance will lie in balancing individual aspirations with the larger goal of defeating the BJP.
