As India approaches the end of September and begins October, meteorological conditions across the country present a complex pattern with varying weather phenomena expected over the next two days. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued detailed forecasts indicating region-specific weather changes that will impact different parts of the nation differently.
Today’s Weather Pattern (September 30, 2025)
Delayed Monsoon Withdrawal Creates Mixed Conditions
The southwest monsoon withdrawal has been significantly delayed this year, with the withdrawal line currently passing through 20°N/69°E, Veraval, Bharuch, Ujjain, Jhansi, Shahjahanpur and 30°N/81°E. This delay means that monsoon conditions persist in many parts of the country where dry weather would normally be expected by this time of year.
Regional Weather Overview:
Northwest India
Delhi-NCR Region: After experiencing unusually high temperatures with Delhi recording 37.5°C on Monday (nearly the highest September temperature in two years), the capital region is expected to see light rainfall and cloudy skies on both September 30 and October 1. Temperatures are forecast to drop from 35-36°C to around 32°C due to incoming precipitation, providing much-needed relief from the recent heat wave.
Rajasthan and Uttarakhand: Isolated thunderstorms with lightning are expected over Uttarakhand on September 30 and across Rajasthan from September 30 to October 3. Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh may experience similar conditions on October 4-5.
Eastern India
Bihar Weather Alert: The state faces a significant weather transition with no rainfall expected on September 30, allowing for clear weather across all districts. However, temperatures are set to rise by 2-3°C by October 1, bringing humid heat and bright sunshine. Meteorologists warn of heavy rain returning between October 2-6 with lightning alerts issued for several districts.
West Bengal and Jharkhand: Isolated heavy rain is expected from October 2-4 in West Bengal & Sikkim, while Jharkhand will see heavy showers on October 2-4. Very heavy rain is likely in Gangetic West Bengal on October 2 and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on October 3-4.
Western India
Maharashtra and Gujarat: Despite recent heavy rainfall causing at least 10 deaths and requiring 11,800+ rescues in Maharashtra, conditions are expected to ease. Heavy rainfall is predicted in Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra over the next six days, except on September 30. Gujarat’s Saurashtra & Kutch regions will continue experiencing heavy showers until October 2.
Mumbai Weather: The financial capital faces continuing monsoon activity with light rain expected this morning on September 30, followed by cloudy conditions with intermittent light rain. The monsoon is likely to overstay until mid-October, significantly beyond the normal withdrawal date of October 8.
Northeast India
Heavy Rainfall Zones: Light to moderate rain with thunderstorms is expected across many areas. Assam & Meghalaya may experience very heavy rain on October 2-3, while Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura will see isolated heavy showers until October 2. Arunachal Pradesh is also expected to receive heavy rain from October 1-5.
Southern Peninsula
Scattered Activity: Light to moderate rain with thunderstorms is likely in many areas. Isolated heavy showers are predicted over north Tamil Nadu on September 30 and along Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam until October 2. Strong surface winds of 30-40 kmph are expected over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, and Lakshadweep.
Tomorrow’s Outlook (October 1, 2025)
Temperature Changes and Regional Variations
Significant Temperature Fluctuations: Night temperatures remain markedly above normal (>5.1°C) at most places over Himachal Pradesh and at few places over West Madhya Pradesh. Delhi-NCR temperatures expected to range between 25°C and 35°C with continued light rainfall possibilities.
Monsoon Activity Intensification: Fresh low-pressure systems developing over the Bay of Bengal are expected to strengthen southwesterly monsoon streams along coastal areas, particularly affecting Maharashtra, Gujarat, and eastern states.
Weather Warnings and Advisories
Critical Alerts for October 1:
Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in Bihar (October 1-4) with very heavy rain on October 4-5
Thunderstorms with gusty winds (30-50 kmph) likely over Bihar, West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, Odisha during the next week
Lightning alerts issued for several districts, particularly in eastern and northeastern regions
Long-term Weather Implications
Extended Monsoon Season Impact: The delayed withdrawal of southwest monsoon until potentially October 17 represents a significant deviation from normal patterns. This delay has several implications:
Continued high humidity levels across normally dry regions
Delayed onset of winter conditions in northern India
Agricultural implications for post-monsoon crop sowing
Urban flooding risks in areas with poor drainage systems
Climate Pattern Analysis: IMD’s seasonal forecast indicates that conditions are not favorable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon during the next 7 days. The persistence of well-marked low-pressure areas over West Vidarbha and adjoining north Madhya Maharashtra continues to support active monsoon conditions.
Temperature Departures from Normal
Above-Normal Temperatures: Several regions continue to experience temperatures significantly above normal:
Himachal Pradesh: Markedly above normal (>5.1°C) at most places
Punjab: Appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at most places
West Rajasthan: Above normal conditions at many places
Delhi: Minimum temperature of 28.2°C on Monday was nearly five degrees above normal
Public Advisory and Precautions
Health and Safety Measures:
Heat-related precautions in northern plains where temperatures remain elevated
Flood preparedness in areas expecting heavy rainfall, particularly Bihar, West Bengal, and Gujarat
Lightning safety awareness in regions under thunderstorm warnings
Air quality concerns due to high humidity and pollution in urban areas
Agricultural Impact: Farmers are advised to monitor weather conditions closely for post-monsoon agricultural activities. The extended monsoon season may affect winter crop sowing schedules and harvesting of kharif crops.
Looking Ahead: Extended Forecast
Week Ahead Trends: The weather pattern suggests continued active monsoon conditions through the first week of October, with gradually improving conditions expected in western regions while eastern and northeastern India may experience intensified rainfall activity.
The IMD is scheduled to hold a virtual press conference on September 30 at 4:00 PM to provide the “Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature for October 2025”, which will offer more detailed insights into the month ahead.
Seasonal Transition: Despite the delayed withdrawal, meteorologists expect normal winter conditions to eventually establish across northern India, though the timing remains 2-3 weeks behind the usual schedule.
This weather pattern underscores the dynamic nature of India’s climate system and the importance of regular monitoring as the country transitions from the monsoon season to the post-monsoon period.
